Methodology
Walk-forward backtest 2022–2026: 57.3% of 12277 winners, Brier 0.2421, log loss 0.677. Always picking the home team: 52.9%.
| 2022 | 2470 games | 60.0% | Brier 0.2377 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2471 games | 57.0% | Brier 0.2439 |
| 2024 | 2472 games | 57.0% | Brier 0.2416 |
| 2025 | 2477 games | 56.4% | Brier 0.2434 |
| 2026 | 2387 games | 56.0% | Brier 0.244 |