MLB game previews

A short preview of every game, generated from the same inputs as the projections.

Slate for 2026-10-11: 1 game, model updated 2026-10-11 15:22 UTC.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers

The model gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a 53% chance of beating the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Championship Series at American Family Field, with a projected score of LAD 3.8, MIL 3.3 and about 7.2 total runs. There is a 35% chance the game is decided by one run.

Tarik Skubal (LHP, LAD) projects to strike out 31.0% and put on 6.0% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.8 innings. Last season hitters managed a .258 xwOBA against him. Jacob Misiorowski (RHP, MIL) projects to strike out 35.5% and put on 9.1% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.0 innings. Last season hitters managed a .288 xwOBA against him.

LAD's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (0 weighted pitches over the last three days). MIL's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (0 weighted pitches over the last three days).

American Family Field plays 3% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 69°F with 5 mph wind.

By the model's breakdown, for LAD the biggest factor is opposing starter (-15% to their expected runs) and for MIL the biggest factor is opposing starter (-17% to their expected runs).

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