2026 World Series predictions
Postseason backtest 2022–2025 (walk-forward): 171 games, 53.8% winners, Brier 0.2547 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.
- Los Angeles Dodgers: 37.9% to win the World Series, 50% to win the pennant
- Milwaukee Brewers: 14.3% to win the World Series, 24% to win the pennant
- New York Yankees: 8.1% to win the World Series, 20% to win the pennant
- Tampa Bay Rays: 7.9% to win the World Series, 24% to win the pennant
- Cleveland Guardians: 7.5% to win the World Series, 24% to win the pennant
- Boston Red Sox: 4.9% to win the World Series, 13% to win the pennant
- Philadelphia Phillies: 4.9% to win the World Series, 8% to win the pennant
- Chicago Cubs: 4.4% to win the World Series, 8% to win the pennant
- Houston Astros: 4.0% to win the World Series, 13% to win the pennant
- Atlanta Braves: 2.5% to win the World Series, 5% to win the pennant
- San Diego Padres: 2.3% to win the World Series, 5% to win the pennant
- Chicago White Sox: 1.2% to win the World Series, 5% to win the pennant
Most likely matchups
- LAD vs CLE: 12.1%
- LAD vs TB: 12.1%
- LAD vs NYY: 9.8%
- LAD vs BOS: 6.5%
- LAD vs HOU: 6.5%
- MIL vs CLE: 5.8%
- MIL vs TB: 5.8%
- MIL vs NYY: 4.7%