Postseason backtest
Postseason backtest 2022–2025 (walk-forward): 171 games, 53.8% winners, Brier 0.2547 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess.
| Model | 171 | 53.8% | 0.2547 | 0.703 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Closing market | 171 | 52.0% | 0.2504 | 0.6938 |
Pre-series probabilities, 44 series: model Brier 0.2545, regular-season records 0.2607, coin flip 0.25.