2026 MLB playoff predictions
Postseason backtest 2022–2025 (walk-forward): 171 games, 53.8% winners, Brier 0.2547 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.
Most likely champion: Los Angeles Dodgers at 37.9%.
- AL Wild Card Series: Houston Astros (3) 60% vs Chicago White Sox (6) 40%
- AL Wild Card Series: New York Yankees (4) 56% vs Boston Red Sox (5) 44%
- NL Wild Card Series: Atlanta Braves (3) 49% vs Philadelphia Phillies (6) 51%
- NL Wild Card Series: San Diego Padres (4) 50% vs Chicago Cubs (5) 50%
- AL Division Series: Tampa Bay Rays awaits the winner; TB 46%, NYY 32%, BOS 22%
- AL Division Series: Cleveland Guardians awaits the winner; CLE 55%, HOU 29%, CWS 16%
- NL Division Series: Milwaukee Brewers awaits the winner; MIL 60%, CHC 22%, SD 18%
- NL Division Series: Los Angeles Dodgers awaits the winner; LAD 71%, PHI 16%, ATL 13%
- AL Championship Series: CLE 24%, TB 24%, NYY 20%, BOS 13%, HOU 13%, CWS 5%
- NL Championship Series: LAD 50%, MIL 24%, PHI 8%, CHC 8%, ATL 5%, SD 5%
- World Series: LAD 50%, CLE 24%, TB 24%, MIL 24%, NYY 20%, BOS 13%, HOU 13%, PHI 8%, CHC 8%, CWS 5%, ATL 5%, SD 5%
| Team | Seed | Record | Reach LCS | Pennant | World Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | 100-62 | 71% | 50% | 37.9% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1 | 103-59 | 60% | 24% | 14.3% |
| New York Yankees | 4 | 93-68 | 32% | 20% | 8.1% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 1 | 98-64 | 46% | 24% | 7.9% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 2 | 85-77 | 55% | 24% | 7.5% |
| Boston Red Sox | 5 | 87-75 | 22% | 13% | 4.9% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 6 | 88-74 | 16% | 8% | 4.9% |
| Chicago Cubs | 5 | 89-73 | 22% | 8% | 4.4% |
| Houston Astros | 3 | 81-81 | 29% | 13% | 4.0% |
| Atlanta Braves | 3 | 94-68 | 13% | 5% | 2.5% |
| San Diego Padres | 4 | 91-71 | 18% | 5% | 2.3% |
| Chicago White Sox | 6 | 84-78 | 16% | 5% | 1.2% |