Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: NL Wild Card Series preview
Postseason backtest 2022–2025 (walk-forward): 171 games, 53.8% winners, Brier 0.2547 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.
Atlanta Braves (3 seed, 94-68) vs Philadelphia Phillies (6 seed, 88-74), best of 3. Philadelphia Phillies 51% to win the series; expected length 2.5 games.
| Game | Home | Starters (rotation order) | ATL win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | ATL | Chris Sale vs Zack Wheeler | 55% |
| Game 2 | ATL | Grant Holmes vs Cristopher Sánchez | 45% |
| Game 3 | ATL | Tyler Mahle vs Aaron Nola | 47% |