Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves projection, 2026-09-29
The model gives the Philadelphia Phillies a 52% chance of beating the Atlanta Braves in the NL Wild Card Series at Truist Park, with a projected score of PHI 5.3, ATL 4.8 and about 10.1 total runs. There is a 27% chance the game is decided by one run.
The Philadelphia Phillies have not named a starter yet, so their side uses a generic starter until one is announced. The Atlanta Braves have not named a starter yet, so their side uses a generic starter until one is announced.
PHI's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (56 weighted pitches over the last three days). ATL's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (37 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Truist Park plays 0% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 81°F with 5 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for PHI the biggest factor is opposing starter (+17% to their expected runs) and for ATL the biggest factor is opposing starter (+17% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | PHI 52% · ATL 48% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | PHI 5.3 – 4.8 ATL |
| Projected total runs | 10.1 |
| One-run game | 27% |
| PHI starter | starter not announced |
| ATL starter | starter not announced |
| Ballpark | Truist Park (run factor -0.5%) |