New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox: AL Wild Card Series preview

Postseason backtest 2022–2025 (walk-forward): 171 games, 53.8% winners, Brier 0.2547 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.

New York Yankees (4 seed, 93-68) vs Boston Red Sox (5 seed, 87-75), best of 3. New York Yankees 56% to win the series; expected length 2.49 games.

GameHomeStarters (rotation order)NYY win
Game 1NYYCam Schlittler vs Ranger Suarez56%
Game 2NYYGerrit Cole vs Sonny Gray55%
Game 3NYYCarlos Rodón vs Payton Tolle51%

New York Yankees · Boston Red Sox · Bracket