New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox: AL Wild Card Series preview
Postseason backtest 2022–2025 (walk-forward): 171 games, 53.8% winners, Brier 0.2547 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.
New York Yankees (4 seed, 93-68) vs Boston Red Sox (5 seed, 87-75), best of 3. New York Yankees 56% to win the series; expected length 2.49 games.
| Game | Home | Starters (rotation order) | NYY win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | NYY | Cam Schlittler vs Ranger Suarez | 56% |
| Game 2 | NYY | Gerrit Cole vs Sonny Gray | 55% |
| Game 3 | NYY | Carlos Rodón vs Payton Tolle | 51% |