Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees projection, 2026-09-29
The model gives the New York Yankees a 68% chance of beating the Boston Red Sox in the AL Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium, with a projected score of BOS 3.5, NYY 4.9 and about 8.3 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
The Boston Red Sox have not named a starter yet, so their side uses a generic starter until one is announced. Cam Schlittler (RHP, NYY) projects to strike out 29.8% and put on 8.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .314 xwOBA against him.
BOS's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (68 weighted pitches over the last three days). NYY's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (0 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Yankee Stadium plays 1% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 68°F with 2 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for BOS the biggest factor is opposing starter (-12% to their expected runs) and for NYY the biggest factor is opposing starter (+17% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | BOS 32% · NYY 68% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | BOS 3.5 – 4.9 NYY |
| Projected total runs | 8.3 |
| One-run game | 30% |
| BOS starter | starter not announced |
| NYY starter | Cam Schlittler (RHP): projected 29.8% strikeouts, 8.3% walks + HBP, 5.5 innings |
| Ballpark | Yankee Stadium (run factor -1.3%) |