San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs: NL Wild Card Series preview
Postseason backtest 2022–2025 (walk-forward): 171 games, 53.8% winners, Brier 0.2547 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.
San Diego Padres (4 seed, 91-71) vs Chicago Cubs (5 seed, 89-73), best of 3. Chicago Cubs 50% to win the series; expected length 2.5 games.
| Game | Home | Starters (rotation order) | SD win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | SD | Michael King vs Clay Holmes | 51% |
| Game 2 | SD | Robbie Ray vs Shota Imanaga | 49% |
| Game 3 | SD | Casey Mize vs Matthew Boyd | 49% |