Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres projection, 2026-09-29
The model gives the San Diego Padres a 58% chance of beating the Chicago Cubs in the NL Wild Card Series at Petco Park, with a projected score of CHC 4.0, SD 4.5 and about 8.5 total runs. There is a 31% chance the game is decided by one run.
The Chicago Cubs have not named a starter yet, so their side uses a generic starter until one is announced. Michael King (RHP, SD) projects to strike out 24.4% and put on 10.1% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.6 innings. Last season hitters managed a .319 xwOBA against him.
CHC's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (50 weighted pitches over the last three days). SD's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (56 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Petco Park plays 7% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 75°F with 5 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for CHC the biggest factor is lineup quality (+6% to their expected runs) and for SD the biggest factor is opposing starter (+17% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CHC 42% · SD 58% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CHC 4.0 – 4.5 SD |
| Projected total runs | 8.5 |
| One-run game | 31% |
| CHC starter | starter not announced |
| SD starter | Michael King (RHP): projected 24.4% strikeouts, 10.1% walks + HBP, 5.6 innings |
| Ballpark | Petco Park (run factor -7.4%) |