New York Mets at Washington Nationals projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the New York Mets a 57% chance of beating the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park, with a projected score of NYM 5.1, WSH 4.2 and about 9.3 total runs. There is a 29% chance the game is decided by one run.
Sean Manaea (LHP, NYM) projects to strike out 24.2% and put on 9.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .310 xwOBA against him. DJ Herz (LHP, WSH) projects to strike out 26.0% and put on 10.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.8 innings.
NYM's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (76 weighted pitches over the last three days). WSH's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (28 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Nationals Park plays 7% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 62°F with 16 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for NYM the biggest factor is lineup quality (+7% to their expected runs) and for WSH the biggest factor is weather (-6% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | NYM 57% · WSH 43% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | NYM 5.1 – 4.2 WSH |
| Projected total runs | 9.3 |
| One-run game | 29% |
| NYM starter | Sean Manaea (LHP): projected 24.2% strikeouts, 9.7% walks + HBP, 5.5 innings |
| WSH starter | DJ Herz (LHP): projected 26.0% strikeouts, 10.5% walks + HBP, 4.8 innings |
| Ballpark | Nationals Park (run factor +6.7%) |
New York Mets · Washington Nationals · Sean Manaea · DJ Herz