New York Mets at Washington Nationals projection, 2026-09-25

The model gives the New York Mets a 54% chance of beating the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park, with a projected score of NYM 5.3, WSH 4.7 and about 10.0 total runs. There is a 27% chance the game is decided by one run.

Jefry Yan (LHP, NYM) projects to strike out 26.3% and put on 12.2% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Andrew Alvarez (LHP, WSH) projects to strike out 23.2% and put on 11.0% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.4 innings. Last season hitters managed a .265 xwOBA against him.

NYM's bullpen has 87% of its usual relief work rested (68 weighted pitches over the last three days). WSH's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (95 weighted pitches over the last three days).

Nationals Park plays 7% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 73°F with 5 mph wind; Sean Barber has the plate.

By the model's breakdown, for NYM the biggest factor is lineup quality (+7% to their expected runs) and for WSH the biggest factor is ballpark (+5% to their expected runs).

New York Mets · Washington Nationals · Jefry Yan · Andrew Alvarez