Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the Toronto Blue Jays a 60% chance of beating the Cincinnati Reds at Rogers Centre, with a projected score of CIN 4.1, TOR 4.8 and about 8.8 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
Rhett Lowder (RHP, CIN) projects to strike out 17.7% and put on 10.2% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.7 innings. Trey Yesavage (RHP, TOR) projects to strike out 25.7% and put on 11.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .314 xwOBA against him.
CIN's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (53 weighted pitches over the last three days). TOR's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (21 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Rogers Centre plays 0% below an average park for runs.
By the model's breakdown, for CIN the biggest factor is lineup quality (-3% to their expected runs) and for TOR the biggest factor is opposing starter (+7% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CIN 40% · TOR 60% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CIN 4.1 – 4.8 TOR |
| Projected total runs | 8.8 |
| One-run game | 30% |
| CIN starter | Rhett Lowder (RHP): projected 17.7% strikeouts, 10.2% walks + HBP, 4.7 innings |
| TOR starter | Trey Yesavage (RHP): projected 25.7% strikeouts, 11.6% walks + HBP, 4.5 innings |
| Ballpark | Rogers Centre (run factor -0.5%) |
Cincinnati Reds · Toronto Blue Jays · Rhett Lowder · Trey Yesavage