Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the Toronto Blue Jays a 57% chance of beating the Cincinnati Reds at Rogers Centre, with a projected score of CIN 4.7, TOR 5.2 and about 9.9 total runs. There is a 28% chance the game is decided by one run.
Brandon Williamson (LHP, CIN) projects to strike out 18.1% and put on 10.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.0 innings. The Toronto Blue Jays have not named a starter yet, so their side uses a generic starter until one is announced.
CIN's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (52 weighted pitches over the last three days). TOR's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (46 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Rogers Centre plays 0% below an average park for runs.
By the model's breakdown, for CIN the biggest factor is opposing starter (+17% to their expected runs) and for TOR the biggest factor is opposing starter (+7% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CIN 43% · TOR 57% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CIN 4.7 – 5.2 TOR |
| Projected total runs | 9.9 |
| One-run game | 28% |
| CIN starter | Brandon Williamson (LHP): projected 18.1% strikeouts, 10.9% walks + HBP, 5.0 innings |
| TOR starter | starter not announced |
| Ballpark | Rogers Centre (run factor -0.4%) |