Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants projection, 2026-09-25

The model gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a 76% chance of beating the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park, with a projected score of LAD 6.0, SF 3.1 and about 9.2 total runs. There is a 25% chance the game is decided by one run.

Tarik Skubal (LHP, LAD) projects to strike out 30.9% and put on 6.0% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.8 innings. Last season hitters managed a .258 xwOBA against him. Yunior Marte (RHP, SF) projects to strike out 16.8% and put on 10.1% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.9 innings.

LAD's bullpen has 91% of its usual relief work rested (98 weighted pitches over the last three days). SF's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (48 weighted pitches over the last three days).

Oracle Park plays 5% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 61°F with 17 mph wind; Tripp Gibson has the plate.

By the model's breakdown, for LAD the biggest factor is lineup quality (+15% to their expected runs) and for SF the biggest factor is opposing starter (-17% to their expected runs).

Los Angeles Dodgers · San Francisco Giants · Tarik Skubal · Yunior Marte