Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the San Diego Padres a 59% chance of beating the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park, with a projected score of AZ 4.6, SD 5.2 and about 9.8 total runs. There is a 28% chance the game is decided by one run.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have not named a starter yet, so their side uses a generic starter until one is announced. Walker Buehler (RHP, SD) projects to strike out 18.7% and put on 10.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .355 xwOBA against him.
AZ's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (50 weighted pitches over the last three days). SD's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (52 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Petco Park plays 8% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 82°F with 5 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for AZ the biggest factor is lineup quality (+6% to their expected runs) and for SD the biggest factor is opposing starter (+17% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | AZ 41% · SD 59% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | AZ 4.6 – 5.2 SD |
| Projected total runs | 9.8 |
| One-run game | 28% |
| AZ starter | starter not announced |
| SD starter | Walker Buehler (RHP): projected 18.7% strikeouts, 10.7% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| Ballpark | Petco Park (run factor -7.9%) |