Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the Arizona Diamondbacks a 56% chance of beating the San Diego Padres at Petco Park, with a projected score of AZ 5.1, SD 4.3 and about 9.4 total runs. There is a 28% chance the game is decided by one run.
Michael Soroka (RHP, AZ) projects to strike out 23.8% and put on 10.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.2 innings. Last season hitters managed a .293 xwOBA against him. The San Diego Padres have not named a starter yet, so their side uses a generic starter until one is announced.
AZ's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (29 weighted pitches over the last three days). SD's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (62 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Petco Park plays 8% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 81°F with 5 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for AZ the biggest factor is opposing starter (+17% to their expected runs) and for SD the biggest factor is ballpark (-6% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | AZ 56% · SD 44% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | AZ 5.1 – 4.3 SD |
| Projected total runs | 9.4 |
| One-run game | 28% |
| AZ starter | Michael Soroka (RHP): projected 23.8% strikeouts, 10.3% walks + HBP, 5.2 innings |
| SD starter | starter not announced |
| Ballpark | Petco Park (run factor -7.7%) |