Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the Tampa Bay Rays a 54% chance of beating the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, with a projected score of TB 4.6, PHI 4.0 and about 8.6 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
Griffin Jax (RHP, TB) projects to strike out 28.8% and put on 7.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.0 innings. Last season hitters managed a .282 xwOBA against him. The Philadelphia Phillies have not named a starter yet, so their side uses a generic starter until one is announced.
TB's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (56 weighted pitches over the last three days). PHI's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (46 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Citizens Bank Park plays 2% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 60°F with 15 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for TB the biggest factor is opposing starter (+17% to their expected runs) and for PHI the biggest factor is weather (-10% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | TB 54% · PHI 46% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | TB 4.6 – 4.0 PHI |
| Projected total runs | 8.6 |
| One-run game | 30% |
| TB starter | Griffin Jax (RHP): projected 28.8% strikeouts, 7.8% walks + HBP, 5.0 innings |
| PHI starter | starter not announced |
| Ballpark | Citizens Bank Park (run factor +2.5%) |