Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the Philadelphia Phillies a 63% chance of beating the Tampa Bay Rays at Citizens Bank Park, with a projected score of TB 3.4, PHI 4.3 and about 7.7 total runs. There is a 33% chance the game is decided by one run.
Nick Martinez (RHP, TB) projects to strike out 17.6% and put on 6.0% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.6 innings. Last season hitters managed a .312 xwOBA against him. Zack Wheeler (RHP, PHI) projects to strike out 29.6% and put on 7.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .247 xwOBA against him.
TB's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (38 weighted pitches over the last three days). PHI's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (38 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Citizens Bank Park plays 2% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 64°F with 20 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for TB the biggest factor is opposing starter (-15% to their expected runs) and for PHI the biggest factor is weather (-10% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | TB 37% · PHI 63% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | TB 3.4 – 4.3 PHI |
| Projected total runs | 7.7 |
| One-run game | 33% |
| TB starter | Nick Martinez (RHP): projected 17.6% strikeouts, 6.0% walks + HBP, 5.6 innings |
| PHI starter | Zack Wheeler (RHP): projected 29.6% strikeouts, 7.8% walks + HBP, 5.5 innings |
| Ballpark | Citizens Bank Park (run factor +2.3%) |
Tampa Bay Rays · Philadelphia Phillies · Nick Martinez · Zack Wheeler