Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies projection, 2026-09-25
The model gives the Philadelphia Phillies a 57% chance of beating the Tampa Bay Rays at Citizens Bank Park, with a projected score of TB 3.7, PHI 4.0 and about 7.7 total runs. There is a 33% chance the game is decided by one run.
Freddy Peralta (RHP, TB) projects to strike out 26.0% and put on 10.2% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.4 innings. Last season hitters managed a .289 xwOBA against him. Cristopher Sánchez (LHP, PHI) projects to strike out 24.6% and put on 6.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.8 innings. Last season hitters managed a .272 xwOBA against him.
TB's bullpen has 74% of its usual relief work rested (126 weighted pitches over the last three days); Brody Hopkins, Steven Matz, Jake Woodford are likely unavailable. PHI's bullpen has 76% of its usual relief work rested (103 weighted pitches over the last three days); Alex McFarlane is likely unavailable.
Citizens Bank Park plays 2% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 71°F with 17 mph wind; Cory Blaser has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for TB the biggest factor is opposing starter (-9% to their expected runs) and for PHI the biggest factor is opposing starter (-8% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | TB 43% · PHI 57% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | TB 3.7 – 4.0 PHI |
| Projected total runs | 7.7 |
| One-run game | 33% |
| TB starter | Freddy Peralta (RHP): projected 26.0% strikeouts, 10.2% walks + HBP, 5.4 innings |
| PHI starter | Cristopher Sánchez (LHP): projected 24.6% strikeouts, 6.5% walks + HBP, 5.8 innings |
| Ballpark | Citizens Bank Park (run factor +2.5%) |
Tampa Bay Rays · Philadelphia Phillies · Freddy Peralta · Cristopher Sánchez