Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies projection, 2026-09-24
The model gives the Philadelphia Phillies a 51% chance of beating the Milwaukee Brewers at Citizens Bank Park, with a projected score of MIL 4.4, PHI 4.2 and about 8.6 total runs. There is a 31% chance the game is decided by one run.
Shane Drohan (LHP, MIL) projects to strike out 23.6% and put on 9.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.0 innings. Andrew Painter (RHP, PHI) projects to strike out 20.5% and put on 9.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.3 innings.
MIL's bullpen has 76% of its usual relief work rested (103 weighted pitches over the last three days); DL Hall is likely unavailable. PHI's bullpen has 90% of its usual relief work rested (58 weighted pitches over the last three days); Tanner Banks is likely unavailable.
Citizens Bank Park plays 3% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 66°F with 11 mph wind; Dan Merzel has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for MIL the biggest factor is weather (-6% to their expected runs) and for PHI the biggest factor is weather (-6% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | MIL 49% · PHI 51% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | MIL 4.4 – 4.2 PHI |
| Projected total runs | 8.6 |
| One-run game | 31% |
| MIL starter | Shane Drohan (LHP): projected 23.6% strikeouts, 9.3% walks + HBP, 5.0 innings |
| PHI starter | Andrew Painter (RHP): projected 20.5% strikeouts, 9.3% walks + HBP, 5.3 innings |
| Ballpark | Citizens Bank Park (run factor +2.6%) |
Milwaukee Brewers · Philadelphia Phillies · Shane Drohan · Andrew Painter