Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees projection, 2026-09-25

The model gives the New York Yankees a 60% chance of beating the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium, with a projected score of BAL 3.9, NYY 4.6 and about 8.5 total runs. There is a 31% chance the game is decided by one run.

Brandon Young (RHP, BAL) projects to strike out 19.4% and put on 9.4% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.4 innings. Last season hitters managed a .320 xwOBA against him. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP, NYY) projects to strike out 17.9% and put on 9.1% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .320 xwOBA against him.

BAL's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (46 weighted pitches over the last three days). NYY's bullpen has 57% of its usual relief work rested (145 weighted pitches over the last three days); Michael Fulmer, Bradley Hanner, Luis Gil are likely unavailable.

Yankee Stadium plays 1% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 69°F with 16 mph wind; Nic Lentz has the plate.

By the model's breakdown, for BAL the biggest factor is opposing starter (+7% to their expected runs) and for NYY the biggest factor is weather (-6% to their expected runs).

Baltimore Orioles · New York Yankees · Brandon Young · Ryan Yarbrough