Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the New York Yankees a 53% chance of beating the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium, with a projected score of BAL 4.2, NYY 4.2 and about 8.5 total runs. There is a 31% chance the game is decided by one run.
Shane Baz (RHP, BAL) projects to strike out 21.9% and put on 9.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .306 xwOBA against him. Elmer Rodríguez (RHP, NYY) projects to strike out 18.5% and put on 13.1% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.7 innings.
BAL's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (74 weighted pitches over the last three days). NYY's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (135 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Yankee Stadium plays 1% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 64°F with 20 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for BAL the biggest factor is opposing starter (+12% to their expected runs) and for NYY the biggest factor is weather (-9% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | BAL 47% · NYY 53% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | BAL 4.2 – 4.2 NYY |
| Projected total runs | 8.5 |
| One-run game | 31% |
| BAL starter | Shane Baz (RHP): projected 21.9% strikeouts, 9.7% walks + HBP, 5.5 innings |
| NYY starter | Elmer Rodríguez (RHP): projected 18.5% strikeouts, 13.1% walks + HBP, 4.7 innings |
| Ballpark | Yankee Stadium (run factor -1.3%) |
Baltimore Orioles · New York Yankees · Shane Baz · Elmer Rodríguez