Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees projection, 2026-09-24

The model gives the New York Yankees a 58% chance of beating the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium, with a projected score of TB 3.4, NYY 3.9 and about 7.3 total runs. There is a 34% chance the game is decided by one run.

Ian Seymour (LHP, TB) projects to strike out 27.9% and put on 7.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .308 xwOBA against him. Cam Schlittler (RHP, NYY) projects to strike out 29.7% and put on 8.2% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.8 innings. Last season hitters managed a .314 xwOBA against him.

TB's bullpen has 71% of its usual relief work rested (114 weighted pitches over the last three days); Cole Sulser is likely unavailable. NYY's bullpen has 60% of its usual relief work rested (80 weighted pitches over the last three days); David Bednar, John Schreiber are likely unavailable.

Yankee Stadium plays 1% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 64°F with 13 mph wind; Edwin Jimenez has the plate.

By the model's breakdown, for TB the biggest factor is opposing starter (-14% to their expected runs) and for NYY the biggest factor is opposing starter (-8% to their expected runs).

Tampa Bay Rays · New York Yankees · Ian Seymour · Cam Schlittler