Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the Minnesota Twins a 60% chance of beating the Texas Rangers at Target Field, with a projected score of TEX 4.3, MIN 5.0 and about 9.3 total runs. There is a 29% chance the game is decided by one run.
The Texas Rangers have not named a starter yet, so their side uses a generic starter until one is announced. Dean Kremer (RHP, MIN) projects to strike out 21.3% and put on 8.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.2 innings. Last season hitters managed a .306 xwOBA against him.
TEX's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (44 weighted pitches over the last three days). MIN's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (19 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Target Field plays 2% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 66°F with 0 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for TEX the biggest factor is weather (-3% to their expected runs) and for MIN the biggest factor is opposing starter (+17% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | TEX 40% · MIN 60% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | TEX 4.3 – 5.0 MIN |
| Projected total runs | 9.3 |
| One-run game | 29% |
| TEX starter | starter not announced |
| MIN starter | Dean Kremer (RHP): projected 21.3% strikeouts, 8.6% walks + HBP, 5.2 innings |
| Ballpark | Target Field (run factor +2%) |