Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the Minnesota Twins a 59% chance of beating the Texas Rangers at Target Field, with a projected score of TEX 4.0, MIN 4.5 and about 8.5 total runs. There is a 31% chance the game is decided by one run.
The Texas Rangers have not named a starter yet, so their side uses a generic starter until one is announced. Bailey Ober (RHP, MIN) projects to strike out 21.3% and put on 7.1% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .323 xwOBA against him.
TEX's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (43 weighted pitches over the last three days). MIN's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (14 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Target Field plays 2% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 59°F with 15 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for TEX the biggest factor is weather (-11% to their expected runs) and for MIN the biggest factor is opposing starter (+17% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | TEX 41% · MIN 59% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | TEX 4.0 – 4.5 MIN |
| Projected total runs | 8.5 |
| One-run game | 31% |
| TEX starter | starter not announced |
| MIN starter | Bailey Ober (RHP): projected 21.3% strikeouts, 7.1% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| Ballpark | Target Field (run factor +1.9%) |