St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the Milwaukee Brewers a 68% chance of beating the St. Louis Cardinals at American Family Field, with a projected score of STL 3.2, MIL 4.6 and about 7.8 total runs. There is a 31% chance the game is decided by one run.
Andre Pallante (RHP, STL) projects to strike out 16.3% and put on 9.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.4 innings. Last season hitters managed a .321 xwOBA against him. Jacob Misiorowski (RHP, MIL) projects to strike out 35.7% and put on 9.2% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .288 xwOBA against him.
STL's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (68 weighted pitches over the last three days). MIL's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (45 weighted pitches over the last three days).
American Family Field plays 3% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 67°F with 5 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for STL the biggest factor is opposing starter (-16% to their expected runs) and for MIL the biggest factor is team run form (+5% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | STL 32% · MIL 68% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | STL 3.2 – 4.6 MIL |
| Projected total runs | 7.8 |
| One-run game | 31% |
| STL starter | Andre Pallante (RHP): projected 16.3% strikeouts, 9.5% walks + HBP, 5.4 innings |
| MIL starter | Jacob Misiorowski (RHP): projected 35.7% strikeouts, 9.2% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| Ballpark | American Family Field (run factor -2.7%) |
St. Louis Cardinals · Milwaukee Brewers · Andre Pallante · Jacob Misiorowski