St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the Milwaukee Brewers a 59% chance of beating the St. Louis Cardinals at American Family Field, with a projected score of STL 3.8, MIL 4.4 and about 8.2 total runs. There is a 31% chance the game is decided by one run.
Quinn Mathews (LHP, STL) projects to strike out 20.9% and put on 9.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.5 innings. Dustin May (RHP, MIL) projects to strike out 21.7% and put on 10.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .349 xwOBA against him.
STL's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (70 weighted pitches over the last three days). MIL's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (58 weighted pitches over the last three days).
American Family Field plays 3% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 61°F with 5 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for STL the biggest factor is weather (-7% to their expected runs) and for MIL the biggest factor is weather (-7% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | STL 41% · MIL 59% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | STL 3.8 – 4.4 MIL |
| Projected total runs | 8.3 |
| One-run game | 31% |
| STL starter | Quinn Mathews (LHP): projected 20.9% strikeouts, 9.8% walks + HBP, 5.5 innings |
| MIL starter | Dustin May (RHP): projected 21.7% strikeouts, 10.5% walks + HBP, 4.1 innings |
| Ballpark | American Family Field (run factor -2.7%) |
St. Louis Cardinals · Milwaukee Brewers · Quinn Mathews · Dustin May