St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers projection, 2026-09-25
The model gives the Milwaukee Brewers a 61% chance of beating the St. Louis Cardinals at American Family Field, with a projected score of STL 4.0, MIL 4.7 and about 8.7 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
Michael McGreevy (RHP, STL) projects to strike out 16.5% and put on 6.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.2 innings. Last season hitters managed a .332 xwOBA against him. Robert Gasser (LHP, MIL) projects to strike out 20.0% and put on 9.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.2 innings. Last season hitters managed a .342 xwOBA against him.
STL's bullpen has 63% of its usual relief work rested (150 weighted pitches over the last three days); Ryne Stanek, Cooper Hjerpe are likely unavailable. MIL's bullpen has 72% of its usual relief work rested (136 weighted pitches over the last three days); Aaron Ashby is likely unavailable.
American Family Field plays 3% below an average park for runs; the roof is expected to be closed; Stu Scheurwater has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for STL the biggest factor is lineup quality (-6% to their expected runs) and for MIL the biggest factor is team run form (+5% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | STL 39% · MIL 61% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | STL 4.0 – 4.7 MIL |
| Projected total runs | 8.7 |
| One-run game | 30% |
| STL starter | Michael McGreevy (RHP): projected 16.5% strikeouts, 6.9% walks + HBP, 5.2 innings |
| MIL starter | Robert Gasser (LHP): projected 20.0% strikeouts, 9.7% walks + HBP, 5.2 innings |
| Ballpark | American Family Field (run factor -2.7%) |
St. Louis Cardinals · Milwaukee Brewers · Michael McGreevy · Robert Gasser