Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the Atlanta Braves a 54% chance of beating the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park, with a projected score of ATL 5.9, MIA 5.2 and about 11.1 total runs. There is a 25% chance the game is decided by one run.
The Atlanta Braves have not named a starter yet, so their side uses a generic starter until one is announced. The Miami Marlins have not named a starter yet, so their side uses a generic starter until one is announced.
ATL's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (47 weighted pitches over the last three days). MIA's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (43 weighted pitches over the last three days).
loanDepot park plays 2% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 85°F with 5 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for ATL the biggest factor is opposing starter (+17% to their expected runs) and for MIA the biggest factor is opposing starter (+17% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | ATL 54% · MIA 46% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | ATL 5.9 – 5.2 MIA |
| Projected total runs | 11.1 |
| One-run game | 25% |
| ATL starter | starter not announced |
| MIA starter | starter not announced |
| Ballpark | loanDepot park (run factor -1.6%) |