Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the Atlanta Braves a 51% chance of beating the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park, with a projected score of ATL 5.2, MIA 4.8 and about 10.0 total runs. There is a 28% chance the game is decided by one run.
JR Ritchie (RHP, ATL) projects to strike out 22.0% and put on 13.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.9 innings. Janson Junk (RHP, MIA) projects to strike out 17.1% and put on 6.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.6 innings. Last season hitters managed a .326 xwOBA against him.
ATL's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (56 weighted pitches over the last three days). MIA's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (15 weighted pitches over the last three days).
loanDepot park plays 2% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 83°F with 2 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for ATL the biggest factor is lineup quality (+6% to their expected runs) and for MIA the biggest factor is opposing starter (+5% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | ATL 51% · MIA 49% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | ATL 5.2 – 4.8 MIA |
| Projected total runs | 10.0 |
| One-run game | 28% |
| ATL starter | JR Ritchie (RHP): projected 22.0% strikeouts, 13.5% walks + HBP, 4.9 innings |
| MIA starter | Janson Junk (RHP): projected 17.1% strikeouts, 6.5% walks + HBP, 4.6 innings |
| Ballpark | loanDepot park (run factor -1.7%) |