Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins projection, 2026-09-25
The model gives the Atlanta Braves a 51% chance of beating the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park, with a projected score of ATL 4.5, MIA 4.2 and about 8.7 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
Ray Kerr (LHP, ATL) projects to strike out 24.5% and put on 8.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Eury Pérez (RHP, MIA) projects to strike out 26.3% and put on 10.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.0 innings. Last season hitters managed a .281 xwOBA against him.
ATL's bullpen has 82% of its usual relief work rested (112 weighted pitches over the last three days); AJ Smith-Shawver is likely unavailable. MIA's bullpen has 76% of its usual relief work rested (114 weighted pitches over the last three days); Josh Ekness is likely unavailable.
loanDepot park plays 2% below an average park for runs; the roof is expected to be closed; Adam Hamari has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for ATL the biggest factor is lineup quality (+6% to their expected runs) and for MIA the biggest factor is team run form (-2% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | ATL 51% · MIA 49% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | ATL 4.5 – 4.2 MIA |
| Projected total runs | 8.7 |
| One-run game | 30% |
| ATL starter | Ray Kerr (LHP): projected 24.5% strikeouts, 8.8% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| MIA starter | Eury Pérez (RHP): projected 26.3% strikeouts, 10.8% walks + HBP, 5.0 innings |
| Ballpark | loanDepot park (run factor -1.6%) |