San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers projection, 2026-09-24

The model gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a 64% chance of beating the San Diego Padres at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, with a projected score of SD 3.8, LAD 4.8 and about 8.6 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.

Nick Pivetta (RHP, SD) projects to strike out 28.0% and put on 7.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.8 innings. Last season hitters managed a .309 xwOBA against him. Tyler Glasnow (RHP, LAD) projects to strike out 30.9% and put on 9.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.3 innings. Last season hitters managed a .285 xwOBA against him.

SD's bullpen has 66% of its usual relief work rested (127 weighted pitches over the last three days); Bradgley Rodriguez is likely unavailable. LAD's bullpen has 81% of its usual relief work rested (113 weighted pitches over the last three days); Jack Dreyer, Blake Treinen are likely unavailable.

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium plays 1% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 74°F with 4 mph wind; Will Little has the plate.

By the model's breakdown, for SD the biggest factor is opposing starter (-13% to their expected runs) and for LAD the biggest factor is lineup quality (+13% to their expected runs).

San Diego Padres · Los Angeles Dodgers · Nick Pivetta · Tyler Glasnow