Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the Kansas City Royals a 54% chance of beating the Cleveland Guardians at Kauffman Stadium, with a projected score of CLE 4.8, KC 5.0 and about 9.8 total runs. There is a 28% chance the game is decided by one run.
The Cleveland Guardians have not named a starter yet, so their side uses a generic starter until one is announced. Daniel Lynch IV (LHP, KC) projects to strike out 17.0% and put on 9.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .328 xwOBA against him.
CLE's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (84 weighted pitches over the last three days). KC's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (75 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Kauffman Stadium plays 2% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 77°F with 3 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for CLE the biggest factor is opposing starter (+8% to their expected runs) and for KC the biggest factor is opposing starter (+17% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CLE 46% · KC 54% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CLE 4.8 – 5.0 KC |
| Projected total runs | 9.8 |
| One-run game | 28% |
| CLE starter | starter not announced |
| KC starter | Daniel Lynch IV (LHP): projected 17.0% strikeouts, 9.8% walks + HBP, 4.5 innings |
| Ballpark | Kauffman Stadium (run factor +2.4%) |