Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals projection, 2026-09-25
The model gives the Cleveland Guardians a 51% chance of beating the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium, with a projected score of CLE 4.0, KC 3.7 and about 7.8 total runs. There is a 33% chance the game is decided by one run.
Gavin Williams (RHP, CLE) projects to strike out 28.0% and put on 10.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.4 innings. Last season hitters managed a .321 xwOBA against him. Noah Cameron (LHP, KC) projects to strike out 21.2% and put on 8.4% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.8 innings. Last season hitters managed a .314 xwOBA against him.
CLE's bullpen has 69% of its usual relief work rested (169 weighted pitches over the last three days); Joey Cantillo is likely unavailable. KC's bullpen has 64% of its usual relief work rested (192 weighted pitches over the last three days); Spencer Bivens, Anthony Gose, Jose Cuas are likely unavailable.
Kauffman Stadium plays 2% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 64°F with 8 mph wind; Tom Hanahan has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for CLE the biggest factor is weather (-4% to their expected runs) and for KC the biggest factor is opposing starter (-10% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CLE 51% · KC 49% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CLE 4.0 – 3.7 KC |
| Projected total runs | 7.8 |
| One-run game | 33% |
| CLE starter | Gavin Williams (RHP): projected 28.0% strikeouts, 10.5% walks + HBP, 5.4 innings |
| KC starter | Noah Cameron (LHP): projected 21.2% strikeouts, 8.4% walks + HBP, 5.8 innings |
| Ballpark | Kauffman Stadium (run factor +2.1%) |
Cleveland Guardians · Kansas City Royals · Gavin Williams · Noah Cameron