Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the Pittsburgh Pirates a 53% chance of beating the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park, with a projected score of PIT 4.7, DET 4.1 and about 8.8 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
Jared Jones (RHP, PIT) projects to strike out 27.4% and put on 8.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.4 innings. River Ryan (RHP, DET) projects to strike out 22.3% and put on 10.2% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.5 innings.
PIT's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (56 weighted pitches over the last three days). DET's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (34 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Comerica Park plays 3% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 71°F with 10 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for PIT the biggest factor is opposing starter (+7% to their expected runs) and for DET the biggest factor is opposing starter (-8% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | PIT 53% · DET 47% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | PIT 4.7 – 4.1 DET |
| Projected total runs | 8.8 |
| One-run game | 30% |
| PIT starter | Jared Jones (RHP): projected 27.4% strikeouts, 8.8% walks + HBP, 5.4 innings |
| DET starter | River Ryan (RHP): projected 22.3% strikeouts, 10.2% walks + HBP, 4.5 innings |
| Ballpark | Comerica Park (run factor -3.4%) |
Pittsburgh Pirates · Detroit Tigers · Jared Jones · River Ryan