Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the Detroit Tigers a 62% chance of beating the Pittsburgh Pirates at Comerica Park, with a projected score of PIT 4.1, DET 5.0 and about 9.0 total runs. There is a 29% chance the game is decided by one run.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have not named a starter yet, so their side uses a generic starter until one is announced. Justin Verlander (RHP, DET) projects to strike out 19.9% and put on 8.8% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.3 innings. Last season hitters managed a .319 xwOBA against him.
PIT's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (57 weighted pitches over the last three days). DET's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (12 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Comerica Park plays 4% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 66°F with 8 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for PIT the biggest factor is team run form (-4% to their expected runs) and for DET the biggest factor is opposing starter (+17% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | PIT 38% · DET 62% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | PIT 4.1 – 5.0 DET |
| Projected total runs | 9.0 |
| One-run game | 29% |
| PIT starter | starter not announced |
| DET starter | Justin Verlander (RHP): projected 19.9% strikeouts, 8.8% walks + HBP, 5.3 innings |
| Ballpark | Comerica Park (run factor -3.6%) |