Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the Boston Red Sox a 50% chance of beating the Chicago Cubs at Tropicana Field, with a projected score of CHC 5.2, BOS 4.9 and about 10.0 total runs. There is a 27% chance the game is decided by one run.
The Chicago Cubs have not named a starter yet, so their side uses a generic starter until one is announced. The Boston Red Sox have not named a starter yet, so their side uses a generic starter until one is announced.
CHC's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (58 weighted pitches over the last three days). BOS's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (110 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Tropicana Field plays 5% below an average park for runs; the roof is expected to be closed.
By the model's breakdown, for CHC the biggest factor is opposing starter (+17% to their expected runs) and for BOS the biggest factor is opposing starter (+17% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CHC 50% · BOS 50% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CHC 5.2 – 4.9 BOS |
| Projected total runs | 10.0 |
| One-run game | 27% |
| CHC starter | starter not announced |
| BOS starter | starter not announced |
| Ballpark | Tropicana Field (run factor -5.2%) |