Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox projection, 2026-09-25

The model gives the Boston Red Sox a 51% chance of beating the Chicago Cubs at Fenway Park, with a projected score of CHC 4.3, BOS 4.2 and about 8.5 total runs. There is a 31% chance the game is decided by one run.

David Peterson (LHP, CHC) projects to strike out 20.8% and put on 10.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.2 innings. Last season hitters managed a .331 xwOBA against him. Brayan Bello (RHP, BOS) projects to strike out 19.0% and put on 9.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .327 xwOBA against him.

CHC's bullpen has 88% of its usual relief work rested (86 weighted pitches over the last three days). BOS's bullpen has 82% of its usual relief work rested (92 weighted pitches over the last three days); Raymond Burgos is likely unavailable.

Fenway Park plays 5% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 66°F with 20 mph wind; D.J. Reyburn has the plate.

By the model's breakdown, for CHC the biggest factor is weather (-9% to their expected runs) and for BOS the biggest factor is weather (-9% to their expected runs).

Chicago Cubs · Boston Red Sox · David Peterson · Brayan Bello