Houston Astros at Athletics projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the Athletics a 55% chance of beating the Houston Astros at Sutter Health Park, with a projected score of HOU 5.4, ATH 5.7 and about 11.1 total runs. There is a 25% chance the game is decided by one run.
The Houston Astros have not named a starter yet, so their side uses a generic starter until one is announced. Jack Perkins (RHP, ATH) projects to strike out 24.6% and put on 10.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .297 xwOBA against him.
HOU's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (73 weighted pitches over the last three days). ATH's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (44 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Sutter Health Park plays 12% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 79°F with 6 mph wind.
By the model's breakdown, for HOU the biggest factor is ballpark (+9% to their expected runs) and for ATH the biggest factor is opposing starter (+17% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | HOU 45% · ATH 55% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | HOU 5.4 – 5.7 ATH |
| Projected total runs | 11.1 |
| One-run game | 25% |
| HOU starter | starter not announced |
| ATH starter | Jack Perkins (RHP): projected 24.6% strikeouts, 10.9% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| Ballpark | Sutter Health Park (run factor +12.5%) |