Houston Astros at Athletics projection, 2026-09-24
The model gives the Houston Astros a 57% chance of beating the Athletics at Sutter Health Park, with a projected score of HOU 6.2, ATH 5.1 and about 11.3 total runs. There is a 25% chance the game is decided by one run.
Peter Lambert (RHP, HOU) projects to strike out 21.2% and put on 10.4% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.3 innings. Mason Barnett (RHP, ATH) projects to strike out 20.0% and put on 12.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.4 innings. Last season hitters managed a .307 xwOBA against him.
HOU's bullpen has 64% of its usual relief work rested (177 weighted pitches over the last three days); Josh Hader, Josh Hendrickson, AJ Blubaugh are likely unavailable. ATH's bullpen has 66% of its usual relief work rested (132 weighted pitches over the last three days); Luis Medina, Hogan Harris are likely unavailable.
Sutter Health Park plays 12% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 87°F with 6 mph wind; John Tumpane has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for HOU the biggest factor is ballpark (+9% to their expected runs) and for ATH the biggest factor is ballpark (+9% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | HOU 57% · ATH 43% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | HOU 6.2 – 5.1 ATH |
| Projected total runs | 11.3 |
| One-run game | 25% |
| HOU starter | Peter Lambert (RHP): projected 21.2% strikeouts, 10.4% walks + HBP, 5.3 innings |
| ATH starter | Mason Barnett (RHP): projected 20.0% strikeouts, 12.3% walks + HBP, 4.4 innings |
| Ballpark | Sutter Health Park (run factor +12.4%) |