Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros projection, 2026-09-29
The model gives the Houston Astros a 58% chance of beating the Chicago White Sox in the AL Wild Card Series at Daikin Park, with a projected score of CWS 4.6, HOU 5.1 and about 9.7 total runs. There is a 28% chance the game is decided by one run.
The Chicago White Sox have not named a starter yet, so their side uses a generic starter until one is announced. The Houston Astros have not named a starter yet, so their side uses a generic starter until one is announced.
CWS's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (60 weighted pitches over the last three days). HOU's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (58 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Daikin Park plays 2% below an average park for runs; the roof is expected to be closed.
By the model's breakdown, for CWS the biggest factor is opposing starter (+17% to their expected runs) and for HOU the biggest factor is opposing starter (+17% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CWS 42% · HOU 58% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CWS 4.6 – 5.1 HOU |
| Projected total runs | 9.7 |
| One-run game | 28% |
| CWS starter | starter not announced |
| HOU starter | starter not announced |
| Ballpark | Daikin Park (run factor -2.3%) |