Today's MLB projections
Every game on the MLB slate with a calibrated win probability, projected score and run environment. Starters, bullpen workload, lineups, ballparks, weather and umpires feed the model, and every projection is graded publicly.
Slate for 2026-09-30: 4 games, model updated 2026-09-30 16:48 UTC.
| Game | First pitch | Starters | Win probability | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (NL Wild Card Series, game 2) | 2:00 PM ET | Cristopher Sánchez vs Tyler Mahle | PHI 51% · ATL 49% | 4.5–4.2 |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros (AL Wild Card Series, game 2) | 5:00 PM ET | Sean Burke vs Hunter Brown | CWS 42% · HOU 58% | 3.8–4.2 |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (AL Wild Card Series, game 2) | 8:00 PM ET | Sonny Gray vs Max Fried | BOS 48% · NYY 52% | 4.0–3.9 |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (NL Wild Card Series, game 2) | 10:00 PM ET | Kevin Gausman vs Nick Pivetta | CHC 52% · SD 48% | 4.0–3.5 |
2026 World Series chances
- Los Angeles Dodgers: 37.7%
- Milwaukee Brewers: 14.6%
- New York Yankees: 12.4%
- Tampa Bay Rays: 7.7%
- Cleveland Guardians: 7.7%
- Atlanta Braves: 4.1%
Full playoff bracket and series odds
How the projections have done
2026: 41 graded games, 63.4% winners picked, Brier score 0.2203 (0.25 is a coin flip). Every graded game.
How each game is projected
Each team's expected runs come from the opposing starting pitcher (weighted by his expected innings), the opposing bullpen and how rested it is, the batting lineup, defense, the ballpark, temperature and wind, and the home-plate umpire. Both expected run totals feed a run distribution that gives the win probability, the projected score and the chance of every run total. Read the methodology.