Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays projection, 2026-10-12

The model gives the Tampa Bay Rays a 56% chance of beating the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Championship Series at Tropicana Field, with a projected score of CLE 3.4, TB 3.7 and about 7.2 total runs. There is a 35% chance the game is decided by one run.

The Cleveland Guardians have not named a starter yet; until they do, the model assumes Parker Messick, their best rotation starter on full rest. The Tampa Bay Rays have not named a starter yet; until they do, the model assumes Drew Rasmussen, their best rotation starter on full rest.

CLE's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (28 weighted pitches over the last three days). TB's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (0 weighted pitches over the last three days).

Tropicana Field plays 6% below an average park for runs; the roof is expected to be closed.

By the model's breakdown, for CLE the biggest factor is opposing starter (-10% to their expected runs) and for TB the biggest factor is opposing starter (-4% to their expected runs).

Cleveland Guardians · Tampa Bay Rays

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