Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers projection, 2026-10-03

The model gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a 59% chance of beating the Atlanta Braves in the NL Division Series at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, with a projected score of ATL 3.9, LAD 4.5 and about 8.4 total runs. There is a 31% chance the game is decided by one run.

The Atlanta Braves have not named a starter yet; until they do, the model assumes Chris Sale, their best rotation starter on full rest. The Los Angeles Dodgers have not named a starter yet; until they do, the model assumes Tarik Skubal, their best rotation starter on full rest.

ATL's bullpen has 85% of its usual relief work rested (44 weighted pitches over the last three days). LAD's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (0 weighted pitches over the last three days).

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium plays 0% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 98°F with 5 mph wind.

By the model's breakdown, for ATL the biggest factor is opposing starter (-18% to their expected runs) and for LAD the biggest factor is opposing starter (-17% to their expected runs).

Atlanta Braves · Los Angeles Dodgers

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