Today's MLB projections
Every game on the MLB slate with a calibrated win probability, projected score and run environment. Starters, bullpen workload, lineups, ballparks, weather and umpires feed the model, and every projection is graded publicly.
Slate for 2026-10-03: 4 games, model updated 2026-10-02 07:36 UTC.
| Game | First pitch | Starters | Win probability | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians (AL Division Series, game 1) | 1:00 PM ET | TBD vs Parker Messick | CWS 42% · CLE 58% | 3.3–3.7 |
| Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers (NL Division Series, game 1) | 4:00 PM ET | TBD vs TBD | ATL 41% · LAD 59% | 3.9–4.5 |
| New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (AL Division Series, game 1) | 6:30 PM ET | TBD vs Drew Rasmussen | NYY 54% · TB 46% | 4.0–3.4 |
| San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers (NL Division Series, game 1) | 8:30 PM ET | TBD vs Jacob Misiorowski | SD 40% · MIL 60% | 3.4–4.0 |
2026 MLB postseason
The 2026 MLB postseason schedule and playoff bracket: every game's date, time and TV, plus bullpen stats for all twelve playoff teams. Round by round: ALDS & NLDS · ALCS & NLCS · World Series schedule.
2026 World Series chances
- Los Angeles Dodgers: 36.9%
- New York Yankees: 17.8%
- Milwaukee Brewers: 13.7%
- Cleveland Guardians: 7.8%
- Atlanta Braves: 7.7%
- Tampa Bay Rays: 7.2%
Full playoff bracket and series odds
How the projections have done
2026: 46 graded games, 63.0% winners picked, Brier score 0.2246 (0.25 is a coin flip). Every graded game.
How each game is projected
Each team's expected runs come from the opposing starting pitcher (weighted by his expected innings), the opposing bullpen and how rested it is, the batting lineup, defense, the ballpark, temperature and wind, and the home-plate umpire. Both expected run totals feed a run distribution that gives the win probability, the projected score and the chance of every run total. Read the methodology.
BullpenEdge publishes MLB statistics and model projections for analysis and entertainment. Projections are estimates, can be wrong, and are not advice of any kind. Not affiliated with Major League Baseball. See the Disclaimer and Methodology.