Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox: AL Division Series preview
Postseason backtest 2022–2025 (walk-forward): 171 games, 53.8% winners, Brier 0.2547 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.
Cleveland Guardians (2 seed, 85-77) vs Chicago White Sox (6 seed, 84-78), best of 5. Cleveland Guardians 60% to win the series; expected length 4.11 games.
| Game | Home | Starters (rotation order) | CLE win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | CLE | Parker Messick vs Sean Newcomb | 59% |
| Game 2 | CLE | Gavin Williams vs Sean Burke | 57% |
| Game 3 | CWS | Foster Griffin vs Davis Martin | 52% |
| Game 4 | CWS | Tanner Bibee vs Anthony Kay | 50% |
| Game 5 | CLE | Parker Messick vs Sean Newcomb | 59% |