Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees: AL Division Series preview
Postseason backtest 2022–2025 (walk-forward): 171 games, 53.8% winners, Brier 0.2547 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.
Tampa Bay Rays (1 seed, 98-64) vs New York Yankees (4 seed, 93-68), best of 5. New York Yankees 60% to win the series; expected length 4.11 games.
| Game | Home | Starters (rotation order) | TB win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | TB | Drew Rasmussen vs Cam Schlittler | 46% |
| Game 2 | TB | Nick Martinez vs Max Fried | 45% |
| Game 3 | NYY | Freddy Peralta vs Gerrit Cole | 42% |
| Game 4 | NYY | Ian Seymour vs Carlos Rodón | 43% |
| Game 5 | TB | Drew Rasmussen vs Cam Schlittler | 46% |