Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers: NL Championship Series preview
Postseason backtest 2022–2026 (walk-forward): 186 games, 54.8% winners, Brier 0.2537 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.
Milwaukee Brewers (1 seed, 103-59) vs Los Angeles Dodgers (2 seed, 100-62), best of 7. Los Angeles Dodgers 68% to win the series; expected length 5.72 games.
| Game | Home | Starters (rotation order) | MIL win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | MIL | Jacob Misiorowski vs Tarik Skubal | 47% |
| Game 2 | MIL | Logan Henderson vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 46% |
| Game 3 | LAD | Robert Gasser vs Blake Snell | 37% |
| Game 4 | LAD | Dustin May vs Tyler Glasnow | 33% |
| Game 5 | LAD | Jacob Misiorowski vs Tarik Skubal | 40% |
| Game 6 | MIL | Logan Henderson vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 46% |
| Game 7 | MIL | Robert Gasser vs Blake Snell | 43% |
How long the series should go
From the game-by-game probabilities above, played in order with each game's home field:
| Ends in | MIL wins | LAD wins | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 games | 2.6% | 12.2% | 14.8% |
| 5 games | 6.4% | 20.4% | 26.8% |
| 6 games | 10.9% | 18.7% | 29.6% |
| 7 games | 12.4% | 16.4% | 28.8% |
The chance this series needs all 7 games is 28.8%; a 4-0 sweep by either side is 14.8%.
Probable starters: 2026 regular season
Innings, strikeouts, strikeout rate per batter faced and runs allowed per nine innings (all runs, not just earned) for each listed starter, from MLB box scores.
| Pitcher | Team | IP | K | K% | RA/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) | MIL | 178.2 | 258 | 37.8% | 2.27 |
| Tarik Skubal (LHP) | LAD | 164.2 | 193 | 30.1% | 2.9 |
| Logan Henderson (RHP) | MIL | 103.1 | 114 | 29.0% | 2.61 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP) | LAD | 192.0 | 192 | 26.2% | 2.62 |
| Robert Gasser (LHP) | MIL | 113.1 | 106 | 22.1% | 3.97 |
| Blake Snell (LHP) | LAD | 46.1 | 60 | 31.3% | 2.14 |
| Dustin May (RHP) | MIL | 148.2 | 147 | 23.1% | 4.9 |
| Tyler Glasnow (RHP) | LAD | 78.2 | 103 | 33.4% | 3.43 |
Milwaukee Brewers · Los Angeles Dodgers · Bracket
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